Trump’s tax promise looks like just another of his tweets–Robert Pozen

MIT Sloan Senior Lecturer Robert Pozen

MIT Sloan Senior Lecturer Robert Pozen

From MarketWatch

Although Donald Trump claims that his forthcoming tax plan will be “phenomenal,” he is in truth not likely to propose something really new.

Before the election, Trump put forth a broad tax plan and then a narrower plan.  But even the narrower plan created a budget deficit of roughly $3 trillion to $4 trillion over 10 years, according to the dynamic scoring of the independent researcher Tax Foundation.  That steep increase in the national debt would present major challenges, given rising interest rates and much larger budget pressures from entitlement programs.

Soon after the election, President Trump lambasted the border adjustment tax ( BAT ) plan of the House Republicans. Then he began to be more favorable to the BAT because he believed — wrongly — that it would impose a large tariff on Mexican imports to pay for the wall.  In fact, the BAT would effectively impose a tax on all imports, which would probably be absorbed by importing companies and their customers.

So there are three main questions about what type of tax plan Trump could propose. 

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The NFL: Twitter’s Kingmaker? — Ben Shields

MIT Sloan Lecturer Ben Shields

MIT Sloan Lecturer Ben Shields

From TechCrunch

The NFL has a distinguished history of successful partnerships with upstart media companies. When it became the home of Sunday Night Football in 1987, ESPN’s unprecedented growth accelerated. Then, in 1993, the NFL sold its NFC Sunday afternoon package to Fox, firmly establishing it as the fourth major broadcast network in the U.S. In turn, both deals expanded the NFL’s reach and significantly increased its media rights revenue.

This fall the NFL is working with another new media partner: Twitter. In a $10 million deal, Twitter is live streaming for free 10 Thursday Night Football (TNF) games. It is part of Twitter’s overall strategy of making live events the centerpiece of its platform. For its part, the NFL reportedly passed on higher bidders for the digital TNF package to test new distribution models with a trusted partner.

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Twitter’s missing tweet: Timely IPO data — Nemit Shroff

MIT Sloan Assistant Professor Nemit Shroff

MIT Sloan Assistant Professor Nemit Shroff

From WSJ MarketWatch

It’s widely believed that uncertainty is bad for business. If you don’t have the right information, you make the wrong decisions. Or you make no decisions at all. We saw this play out during the financial crisis when there was quite a lot of uncertainty and many investors held back.

With that in mind, my colleagues and I recently looked at the effect of having greater financial information available within an industry. Specifically, we studied the impact of public firms on an industry, as public firms are required to disclose large amounts of information. They have to issue quarterly financial statements and provide information on operational details such as business strategy, expected future outlook, and business risk. Financial analysts and the business press provide even more information on those companies. Taken together, that disclosure activity can improve the information environment for firms in that industry by reducing uncertainty.

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Modeling Twitter — Tauhid Zaman

MIT Sloan Assistant Professor Tauhid Zaman

We often hear that the Internet is unpredictable, that it’s the “Wild West.” That would seem to be especially true of a social medium such as Twitter. After all, tweets are by definition instant and short-lived. But in a paper I and my co-authors just submitted to the Annals of Applied Statistics, we describe a model we have developed that predicts how popular a tweet is likely to be within just a few minutes of when the “root tweet” is posted.

And anyone who wants to can now try out our model by visiting www.twouija.com.

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