MIT Sloan Prof. Simon Johnson
From the New York Times
The news from Europe, particularly from within the euro zone, seems all bad.
Interest rates on Italian government debt continue to rise. Attempts to put together a “rescue package” at the pan-European level repeatedly fall behind events. And the lack of leadership from Germany and France is palpable – where is the vision or the clarity of thought we would have had from Charles de Gaulle or Konrad Adenauer?
MIT Sloan Deputy Dean S.P. Kothari
From Forbes.com
As the U.S. and Europe teeter on the edge of a devastating double-dip recession, India’s economic boom—once considered a bright spot in an otherwise bleak global financial landscape—is also showing signs of weakness.
The International Monetary Fund recently cut its growth projection for India, warning that the country was perilously close to double-digit inflation. (In the past fiscal year, India’s economy grew 8.5%; before the financial crisis, its growth exceeded 9% for three straight years.) The IMF cited “a drag from renewed global uncertainty” as the main reason for the revision, but that is letting India off easy.
From Bloomberg News
The summer debate that has dominated Washington seems straightforward. Under what conditions should the U.S. government be allowed to borrow more money? The numbers that have been bandied about focus on reducing the cumulative deficit projection over the next 10 years, as measured by the Congressional Budget Office.
But there is a serious drawback to this measure because it ignores what will probably prove to be the U.S.’s single largest fiscal problem over the next decade: The lack of adequate capital buffers at banks.
MIT Sloan Prof. Simon Johnson
From Bloomberg News
Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank until October, last week floated two proposals aimed at dealing with Greece and related eurozone public-debt problems.
The first idea would allow European Union authorities to override the policy decisions of member governments that can’t come up with sustainable budgets, implying the creation of an external control board for the likes of Greece. This approach has been used in the past for very weak countries (as well as for the cities of New York andWashington in recent decades). In Europe today, it would have no political legitimacy and would be completely unworkable — imagine the street protests it would spark.
MIT Sloan Prof. Simon Johnson
From Bloomberg
Even before the shocking events of the past few days, the international policy community had been contemplating a successor to Dominique Strauss-Kahn at the International Monetary Fund.
Strauss-Kahn, the IMF managing director, was expected to begin campaigning soon for the presidency of France. Now, whatever happens in the New York legal system as he defends himself against attempted rape allegations, it seems likely that the IMF will be searching for a new head sooner rather than later.
The idea that the job has become an attractive sinecure with nice fringe benefits should have been laid to rest by German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s preemptive strike earlier this week, when she said there are currently “good reasons” for the European Union to have a candidate. That produced similar expressions from other leading European politicians, although not all of them are willing to say that Strauss-Kahn is finished. Yesterday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry pronounced that the selection process must emphasize “fairness, transparency and merit.” Translation: China is pushing back against the idea that Europe necessarily gets to name Strauss- Kahn’s heir.
See the full column at Bloomberg Opinion
Listen to Simon Johnson on NPR’s All Things Considered
Simon Johnson is Ronald A. Kurtz (1954) Professor of Entrepreneurship and Professor of Global Economics and Management
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