When we set out to find a visionary and thinker in the financial sector to add to our collection of interviews, Kristin Forbes’ name was suggested to us by other economists, as well as from other women her age in finance, the arts and by those equally formally educated, who have opted to stay at home and raise kids. It was one of the first times that such a varied range of people suggested someone to us.
We began to research her. We were intrigued that the Bank of England had selected this American economist to join their Monetary Policy Committee as one of two external members. And we were curious about hearing from someone who was in the White House during President Bush’s years, a controversial President, and who watched the collapse of the financial markets that has brought forth finger pointing and reform. But what interested us most was that this MIT Professor was one of the earliest thinkers to focus on financial contagions. I sat down with Kristin to discuss contagions, the current thinking on energy, inflation and economic growth.
Last week, Turkey’s central bank surprised investors by raising a key interest rate to 10 percent from 4.5 percent. It was a bold move to rein in inflation and calm the markets. But Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been vocal in blaming the “interest-rate lobby” — a supposed conspiracy of foreign bankers, and some economists and journalists — for volatility in stock prices and a steep decline in the lira.
Turkey is far from the only country to blame foreigners for recent market turmoil. Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, recently complained of a “psychological war from abroad.” The governor of the Central Bank of Brazil, Alexandre Antônio Tombini, describes rising interest rates in rich countries as a “vacuum cleaner” that indiscriminately sucks capital out of emerging markets.
What began as a singular sovereign debt problem in Greece in 2009 quickly spread to the rest of Europe. First Ireland; then Portugal and Spain and Italy. Today—only three years after the first signs of trouble—virtually all Europeans have felt the destructive effects of the euro zone turmoil, and its impact is being felt around the world.
Contagion, a phenomenon where financial tumult in one country or region spreads to another country, is now a fact of life. The globalization of finance has, in many ways, made contagion inevitable. The world has become much more integrated through trade, investors, and banks, and these ties have caused countries’ financial markets to move together more closely during good times and bad. Read More »
In 2009 when my colleagues at the National Bureau of Economic Research and I began planning a conference for a project we’re running on the global financial crisis, we were concerned that the material would no longer be timely when the symposium actually occurred. We needn’t have worried.
I’ve just returned from Washington, DC, where our symposium was held, and again financial crises were the topic of the day. Three years after cracks in the subprime mortgage market erupted into the most severe and synchronized global financial crisis and recession since the Great Depression, the world economy is once more in dangerous territory. What began as a singular sovereign debt problem in Greece has spread to the rest of Europe, and now threatens to become a second act to the first financial crisis. How did we get here? And how can we keep it from happening again?
My top priority if I was in charge: fundamental tax reform for individuals as well as consumers. Get rid of all the numerous deductions, exemptions, and special deals so that you could dramatically lower marginal tax rates while raising as much (if not more) money.
This would make our economy more efficient – raising growth and creating jobs. It would reduce uncertainty about future taxes and help stabilize our debt, allowing companies to invest and hire. It would keep companies and jobs in the US rather than moving to other countries with lower tax rates.
Given our unsustainable deficits, we will need to do a major overhaul of our tax code at some point. It will be difficult to grow and recover until the uncertainty about how we deal with our fiscal challenges is resolved, so fundamental tax reform would help our economy both in the short and long term.