It’s widely believed that uncertainty is bad for business. If you don’t have the right information, you make the wrong decisions. Or you make no decisions at all. We saw this play out during the financial crisis when there was quite a lot of uncertainty and many investors held back.
With that in mind, my colleagues and I recently looked at the effect of having greater financial information available within an industry. Specifically, we studied the impact of public firms on an industry, as public firms are required to disclose large amounts of information. They have to issue quarterly financial statements and provide information on operational details such as business strategy, expected future outlook, and business risk. Financial analysts and the business press provide even more information on those companies. Taken together, that disclosure activity can improve the information environment for firms in that industry by reducing uncertainty.
When Congress passed the Jumpstart Our Business Start-ups Act (“JOBS Act”) last year, the rationale sounded right: some “good ideas” don’t come to market because entrepreneurs often lack the necessary connections to privately raise significant amounts of capital. If they could get such funding, the argument went, jobs would be created. And that’s a good thing.
So part of the JOBS Act now permits private firms, including start-ups, to seek equity investments without registering shares for sale, though only from accredited investors. But if implemented, other provisions of the law would allow entrepreneurs and others to use crowd sourcing or social media to troll for money from virtually any would-be private investor. And that’s not such a good thing.
IPOs are making a comeback, according to Ernst & Young. E&Y surveyed 300 institutional investors and found that 82 percent had invested in IPO or pre-IPO stocks in the previous 12 months, compared with only 18 percent in the prior two years.
While the rebound has occurred across industries, investors clearly like certain kinds of companies more than others. Biotech has had a string of successful IPOs. This infusion of capital will allow companies to get their products to market faster, which should get us closer to curing or combating diseases. The social media industry also has been drawing IPO investors of late, despite Facebook’s bungled IPO in the spring of 2012.
Americans are spending more money at the pump than ever before. According to a recent estimate by the Energy Department, the average U.S. household spent nearly $3,000 on gasoline last year. Earlier this month, theU.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that the price for regular gasoline will average $3.63 a gallon this summer — a slight decline from last summer, not far from the record levels set in 2008. Why do oil prices remain so stubbornly high?
According to some in Washington, the blame lies with “speculators” — investors who buy and sell oil futures contracts to bet on the price of oil. As they see it, these scheming speculators — which may be individuals, but can also be mutual funds, hedge funds, or other investment institutions — inject billions of dollars into commodity exchanges in pursuit of a limited number of barrels, which in turn drives up the price of oil. Speculators, critics say, rake in piles of money at the expense of ordinary people who are going broke fueling their cars and heating their homes. Read More »
The first published paper that I know of to document that returns are predictable across stocks was published in 1972. In that paper, the authors showed that price level predicts returns in that low priced stocks tend to have higher returns than high priced stocks. Since then, this has been an active research area with numerous academic papers showing that various strategies based on observable firm traits (e.g., size, past performance) can predict returns across stocks. Read More »