Juanjuan Zhang on microlending websites: a poor credit rating can mean a successful loan

MIT Sloan Asst. Prof. Juanjuan Zhang

When a bank considers a loan, it looks at the borrower’s income, assets, credit history, and plans for the money. On microloan websites, lenders have one other way to evaluate a borrower’s creditworthiness. They can observe the behavior of other lenders.

With a colleague, Peng Liu of Cornell University, I have been studying Prosper.com, the largest of the microlending sites. On Prosper, lending is transparent. Borrowers make requests in public postings and typically rely on multiple lenders. Prosper assigns credit ratings to borrowers, and friends of borrowers can post endorsements. Once the process is under way, lenders can see how other lenders respond to the listing.

We analyzed over 2 ½ years of Prosper data to determine the dynamics of lender behavior. We thought we might see what is known as  “irrational herding,” or mimicking. If irrational herding is at work, then a listing that received a strong initial response would attract more and more lenders. As we sifted through the data, we found no evidence this was  happening.

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Kristin Forbes: Economists must bridge disciplines to find answers to financial crises

MIT Sloan Prof. Kristin Forbes

In 2009 when my colleagues at the National Bureau of Economic Research and I began planning a conference for a project we’re running on the global financial crisis, we were concerned that the material would no longer be timely when the symposium actually occurred. We needn’t have worried.

I’ve just returned from Washington, DC, where our symposium was held, and again financial crises were the topic of the day. Three years after cracks in the subprime mortgage market erupted into the most severe and synchronized global financial crisis and recession since the Great Depression, the world economy is once more in dangerous territory. What began as a singular sovereign debt problem in Greece has spread to the rest of Europe, and now threatens to become a second act to the first financial crisis. How did we get here? And how can we keep it from happening again?

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