Making economic sanctions on North Korea work – Yasheng Huang

MIT Sloan Professor Yasheng Huang

MIT Sloan Professor Yasheng Huang

From Project Syndicate

China is the only country with the power to compel North Korea to change its nuclear policy. Convincing Chinese leaders to wield that power, by fully isolating the regime economically, must be the international community’s top priority.

Last week, in a brazen rebuff to tough new United Nations sanctions, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s regime fired a ballistic missile over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido – its second launch over Japan in less than three weeks. But, far from indicating that sanctions don’t work, Kim’s move shows that they still aren’t tough enough.

The latest sanctions cap oil imports, ban textile exports, and penalize designated North Korean government entities. Following Kim’s response, sanctions should be tightened even further, to stop all trade with North Korea, including halting all fuel imports.

North Korea is one of the most insular countries in the world. That insularity is a curse for the long-suffering North Korean people, but an advantage for a sanction-based strategy, because only one country is needed to make it work: China.

From an economic perspective, China is the only country that really matters to North Korea, as it controls about 90% of the North’s foreign trade and supplies almost all of its fuel. Yet China’s economy would barely register the effect of new sanctions: North Korea’s annual GDP, at a meager $28 billion, constitutes little more than a rounding error for its giant neighbor.

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Has China’s coal use peaked? Hear’s how to read the tea leaves – Valerie J. Karplus

Assistant Professor Valerie Karplus

Assistant Professor Valerie Karplus

From The Conversation

As the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world, how much coal China is burning is of global interest.

In March, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said the tonnage of coal has fallen for the second year in the row. Indeed, there are reports that China will stop construction of new plants, as the country grapples with overcapacity, and efforts to phase out inefficient and outdated coal plants are expected to continue.

A sustained reduction in coal, the main fuel used to generate electricity in China, will be good news for the local environment and global climate. But it also raises questions: what is driving the drop? And can we expect this nascent trend to continue?

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The US can’t beat China’s robots but it can win by building the machines that make them – Matt Beane

MIT Sloan Ph.D. Student Matt Beane

From Quartz

As a US presidential candidate, Donald Trump made keeping manufacturing jobs in the country a key economic issue. He promised to bring back jobs from China, Mexico, Japan, and elsewhere; he pledged to force companies from Ford to Apple to Nabisco to open or re-open factories on American shores; and he vowed to revive the coal and steelmaking industries. His promise to create industrial jobs was key to his electoral victory.

Still, many were—and remain—deeply skeptical of Trump’s plans. Mark Cuban, internet entrepreneur and frequent thorn in the side of the president, says that bringing back manufacturing will backfire and lead to overall job losses. Instead, he says, the US ought to invest in robotics to compete with China. “We have to win the robotics race,” he says. “We are not even close right now.” (For what it’s worth, Trump’s labor secretary Steven Mnuchin recently disagreed, saying robots aren’t even “on my radar screen.”)

Cuban is on the right track, but the fact is that it’s too late to go head-to-head with China on building robots alone. We can’t compete with China’s robot revolution. But we can complement it.

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Israeli model holds the answers to China’s quest for technology and innovation — Yasheng Huang

MIT Sloan Prof. Yasheng Huang

MIT Sloan Prof. Yasheng Huang

From South China Morning Post

It is widely understood that China needs to move from an investment-intensive growth model to one based on science, technology and innovation. But before I take up this subject, let me take a detour to tell a tale of two countries.

Both countries are small. One has a population of 5.5 million people; the other has a population of 8 million. In both countries, the dominant ethnic group is about 75 per cent of the population and minority groups make up the rest.

Both countries are rich. One country has a per capita gross domestic product of US$52,000 and the other country has a per capita GDP of US$35,000.

Both countries have faced existential security threats from the outside and armies in both countries have mandatory conscriptions. One country was actually kicked out and evicted by its now much larger neighbour, because the union would have threatened the political dominance of the main ethnic group. The second country is located in a region surrounded by hostile nations.

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How to not be a democracy — Yasheng Huang

MIT Sloan Professor Yasheng Huang

MIT Sloan Professor Yasheng Huang

From The Huffington Post

According to Democracy Index of The Economist magazine, today about 47% of the countries are democratic; 53% are either authoritarian or are a hybrid of democratic and authoritarian regimes. The election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States must have given an electric jolt to that non-democratic 53% of the world. Authoritarians cheered. Vladimir Putin was among the first to call to congratulate and so did President Xi Jinping of China.

In an opinion piece for the New York Times, Eric Li, a Chinese venture capitalist, who rose to prominence for his fierce defense and assertion of the superiority of the Chinese political system, wrote that many people in China supported Trump’s candidacy. Trump, Mr. Li argues, is a business pragmatist and will engage with China without what he calls “the shackles of ideology”—i.e., an ideology of democratic and liberal values. This would be good for China.

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